Now what will N. Korea’s nuclear scientists do?

Now what will N. Korea’s nuclear scientists do?
(Reuters)

27 July 2007
khaleejtimes.com
BEIJING - North Korea’s main atomic complex now stands dormant under international watch, but nations seeking to end its nuclear threat face the problem of what to do with the scientists who gave the poor state its budding arsenal.
International monitors confirmed last week that North Korea had shut key facilities at its Yongbyon nuclear complex. More monitors arrived in Beijing on Friday, passing through to the site, which is the focus of a February disarmament pact.
But for these steps to mature into lasting disarmament, negotiators must run a minefield of complexities — including the future of the North’s atomic scientists, who could restart an arms push or sell secrets to other aspiring nuclear states.
Officials and experts said they have been pondering this issue and it could come up soon in technical talks.
“This becomes relevant at the dismantlement phase, not the current freeze phase which will take us through the end of 2007, early 2008, assuming the best,” said Peter Hayes of the Nautilus Institute, a San Francisco-based think tank that specialises in North Korea.
“Yes, there are proliferation risks from footloose experts, defectors, or refugees from the DPRK (North Korea). Yes, there are people worrying about this in the US and other governments.”
Estimates of how many people work on North Korea’s nuclear programmes are guesswork, reflecting the secrecy of its reactors, plutonium production, and — according to US claims — enrichment of uranium for potential use in weapons.
Path of Khan
Yongbyon, about 100 km (60 miles) north of the capital Pyongyang, has been estimated to employ roughly 2,000 scientists and staff of varying skill, intelligence sources say.
Unlike the arms engineers of the former Soviet Union, the North Korean experts are far from the forefront of their field. But they have honed skills in old technology that could spread with relative ease.
Washington and the North’s neighbours worry they could follow the path of Pakistan’s Abdul Qadeer Khan, who became a merchant of nuclear secrets to Libya, Iran and North Korea itself.
A more immediate concern is that failing to assure the scientists’ future could give Pyongyang another reason to resist disarmament.
“These guys aren’t a proliferation risk per se unless North Korea collapses,” said Joel Wit, a former US State Department disarmament expert who has visited the North.
“But the real concern is that in the context of the agreement the North Koreans are going to turn to us and ask, ’What do we do with these guys?’ Solving that is going to be an absolute requirement from the North Korean side.”
The chief US envoy in the six-country disarmament talks, Christopher Hill, said last week the topic had not come up in recent negotiations but the North was concerned.
“I know it’s very much on the minds of the North Korean officials,” he told reporters in Beijing.
Foreign experts have been talking with North Korea about finding solutions.
“My impression from talking to them is that they’re really interested in re-establishing cooperation,” said Wit.
Dating service
One proposal inspired by US aid to post-Cold War Russia would set up a “dating service” to introduce scientists to peaceful commercial work, said Jon Wolfsthal of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
Such cooperation would also help outsiders gauge North Korea’s nuclear strengths and find possible gaps in disarmament controls, said Wolfsthal.
The North’s neighbours — China and South Korea — are also eager to have a say in the scientists’ future.
“The South Koreans are so anxious in fact that they want to do this on their own,” said Wolfsthal.
A Seoul National University nuclear engineer, Lee Un-chul, said South Korea will probably end up giving them jobs, “even if it means giving them a nice job at a factory”.
North Korea insists its nuclear scientists will also work on the light-water reactors it has demanded in return for disarmament, said Hayes.
Pyongyang nuclear negotiator Kim Kye-gwan last week repeated the demand for the reactors, which do not make weapons-usable plutonium with anything like the ease of graphite-moderated ones such as Yongbyon.
Under a 1994 disarmament deal that collapsed in 2002, the United States agreed to help build North Korea two light-water reactors, which now lie uncompleted.



Officials now wonder: What will North Korea's atomic scientists do?
Reuters
IHT
Friday, July 27, 2007
BEIJING: North Korea's main atomic complex now stands dormant under international watch, but nations seeking to end its nuclear threat face the problem of what to do with the scientists who gave the poor state its budding arsenal.
International monitors confirmed this month that North Korea had shut key facilities at its Yongbyon nuclear complex. More monitors arrived in Beijing on Friday, passing through to the site, which is the focus of a February disarmament pact.
But for those steps to mature into lasting disarmament, negotiators must run a minefield of complexities, including the future of the North Korean atomic scientists, who could restart the push for weapons or sell secrets to other aspiring nuclear states. Officials and experts said they had been pondering that issue and it could come up soon in technical talks.
"This becomes relevant at the dismantlement phase, not the current freeze phase, which will take us through the end of 2007, early 2008, assuming the best," said Peter Hayes of the Nautilus Institute, an organization in San Francisco that specializes in North Korea.
"Yes, there are proliferation risks from footloose experts, defectors or refugees" from North Korea. "Yes, there are people worrying about this in the U.S. and other governments."
Yongbyon, about 100 kilometers, or 60 miles, north of the capital, Pyongyang, has been estimated to employ roughly 2,000 scientists and staff of varying skill, intelligence sources say.
Unlike the arms engineers of the former Soviet Union, the North Korean experts are far from the forefront of their field. But they have honed skills in old technology that could spread with relative ease.
Washington and the North's neighbors worry they could follow the path of Abdul Qadeer Khan of Pakistan, who became a merchant of nuclear secrets to Libya, Iran and North Korea itself.
A more immediate concern is that failing to assure the scientists' future could give Pyongyang another reason to resist disarmament.
The chief U.S. envoy in the six-country disarmament talks, Christopher Hill, said that the topic had not come up in recent negotiations, but that the North was concerned.
Foreign experts have been talking with North Korea about finding solutions. One proposal, inspired by U.S. aid to post-Cold War Russia, would set up a "dating service" to introduce scientists to peaceful commercial work, said Jon Wolfsthal of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
The North's neighbors, China and South Korea, also are eager to have a say in the scientists' future.
A nuclear engineer at Seoul National University, Lee Un Chul, said South Korea would probably end up giving them jobs, "even if it means giving them a nice job at a factory."
North Korea has said its nuclear scientists will work on the light-water reactors it has demanded in return for disarmament, said Hayes.



Merchants of doom in need of new work
Chris Buckley
Monday, July 30, 2007
North Korea's main atomic complex is now dormant under international watch, but nations seeking to dismantle its nuclear capabilities face the problem of what to do with the scientists who gave the country its budding arsenal.
International monitors confirmed last week that North Korea closed key facilities at its Yongbyon nuclear complex. More monitors arrived in Beijing on Friday en route to the site - the focal point of a February disarmament pact.
Negotiators must navigate a minefield of complexities - including the future of the North's atomic scientists, who could restart an arms push or sell secrets to other aspiring nuclear states.
Officials and experts have pondered the issue, saying that it could come up soon during technical discussions.
"This becomes relevant at the dismantlement phase, not the current freeze phase, which will take us through the end of 2007, early 2008, assuming the best," said Peter Hayes of the Nautilus Institute, a San Francisco-based think-tank specializing in North Korea.
"Yes, there are proliferation risks from footloose experts, defectors or refugees from the DPRK [North Korea]. Yes, there are people worrying about this in the US and other governments."
Estimates of how many people work on North Korea's nuclear programs are speculative, reflecting the secrecy of its reactors, plutonium production, and - according to US claims - enrichment of uranium for potential use in weapons.
Yongbyon, about 100 kilometers north of the capital Pyongyang, supposedly employs about 2,000 scientists and staff.
Unlike engineers from the former Soviet Union, North Korea's experts are far from being at the forefront of their field, yet they have honed skills in old technology that could easily spread.
Washington and the North's neighbors worry they could follow the path of Pakistan's Dr Abdul Qadeer Khan, who became a merchant of nuclear secrets to Libya, Iran and North Korea itself.
A more immediate concern is that failing to assure the scientists' future could give Pyongyang another reason to resist disarmament.
"These guys aren't a proliferation risk per se unless North Korea collapses," said Joel Wit, a former US State Department disarmament expert who has visited the country.
"But the real concern is that in the context of the agreement the North Koreans are going to turn to us and ask: `What do we do with these guys?' Solving that is going to be an absolute requirement from the North Korean side."
Chief US envoy in the six-country disarmament talks Christopher Hill said last week the topic had not arisen in recent negotiations but the North was concerned.
"I know it's very much on the minds of the North Korean officials," he told reporters in Beijing.
Foreign experts have been talking with North Korea about finding solutions.
"My impression from talking to them is that they're really interested in reestablishing cooperation," Wit said.
One proposal inspired by US aid to post-Cold War Russia would provide scientists with peaceful commercial work, said Jon Wolfsthal of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. Doing so would help the world gauge North Korea's nuclear strengths and find possible gaps in disarmament controls, Wolfsthal said.
The North's neighbors - China and South Korea - are also eager to have a say in the scientists' future.
"The South Koreans are so anxious in fact that they want to do this on their own," Wolfsthal said.
A Seoul National University nuclear engineer, Lee Un Chul, stated South Korea will probably end up giving them jobs, "even if it means giving them a nice job at a factory."
North Korea insists its nuclear scientists will also work on the light-water reactors it has demanded in return for disarmament, Hayes said. Pyongyang's negotiator Kim Kye Gwan last week repeated demands for the reactors, which do not make weapons-usable plutonium with anything like the ease of graphite-moderated ones at Yongbyon.
In 1994, the United States agreed to help the country build two light-water reactors [currently uncompleted] under a disarmament deal that collapsed in 2002.
REUTERS