Another false dawn?

AFP


Another false dawn?

Aug 8th 2007
From Economist.com
North and South Korea will meet


THERE is every reason to be sceptical. On Wednesday August 8th the governments of North and South Korea announced what, on the face of it, seems to be a breakthrough between two countries that have been at war with each other, at least technically, for over half a century. At the end of this month the president of the South, Roh Moo-hyun, will fly north to Pyongyang for a meeting with his reclusive counterpart, Kim Jong Il. The summit will be only the second bilateral get-together between leaders of the two countries.
In the context of recent developments in North Korea, including the closure of its nuclear reactor at Yongbyon in July following months of diplomatic consultations and the offer (and first deliveries) of fuel aid, one might reasonably conclude that this is something to cheer. Optimists may hope that this meeting represents a significant step towards the ending of North Korea’s isolation, ridding the peninsular of nuclear weapons and developing a needlessly poor country.
A South Korean spokesman said on Wednesday that the meeting will “help inter-Korean relations and provide fresh momentum to improve North Korea’s international relations.” North Korea’s official news agency made similarly warm comments, talking of a meeting of “weighty significance in opening a new phase of peace”. Officials from China and America are also cautiously hopeful that talks might prove helpful.
The possibility of progress should not be ruled out. But there is also a whiff of opportunism about the surprise announcement of the summit. The South’s Mr Roh has at least one eye on his dismal popularity ratings at home. He is nearing the end of his term in office and has little to show for a friendly “sunshine” policy towards the northern neighbour. The opposition Grand National Party is expected to win a presidential election in December and has been pushing for a less accommodating approach to the North. Assuming that Mr Kim would prefer his southern neighbour to keep offering aid and to refrain from confrontation, it would seem that both he and Mr Roh would like to give the impression of diplomatic progress in the next few months, even if nothing were likely to be achieved.
Optimists might counter that international conditions are particularly encouraging at the moment. Perhaps most important is that China is taking a stronger interest in bringing North Korea in from the cold. The long-running six-party talks (involving the two Koreas, China, America, Russia and Japan) have at last produced results, not only with the closure of Yongbyon, but with the release of funds to North Korea from a bank in Macau, with promises of warmer relations with the United States, and with visits to the North by inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency.
The trouble is, the world has been here before. The previous meeting, seven years ago, coincided with enormous optimism that the North was finally giving up its isolated status. America’s government pushed a missile deal with North Korea. The secretary of state at the time, Madeleine Albright, even visited Pyongyang in a symbolic effort to end American-North Korean hostility. After the previous meeting joint economic programmes were started at the border and meetings were organised to allow family reunions. The South’s leader, Kim Dae-jung, was handed a Nobel peace prize for his efforts (although he later had to apologise after admitting that northern leaders had been bribed with cash to take part in talks). Yet North Korea soon reverted to its old hostile position, pushing ahead with the development and even, in 2006, the testing of nuclear devices.